Marco Rubio Has No Path to the Nomination

I’m afraid the writing is on the wall for Florida Senator Marco Rubio in this Presidential contest. He still has not won a single state, and it does not look like he is going to any time soon. He is well behind Donald Trump even in his home state of Florida. Given that, even Ohio Governor John Kasich has a better chance going forward than Senator Rubio.

On the other hand, Texas Senator Ted Cruz will win his home state on March 1, and will likely win Arkansas as well. Beyond that, he will also do well in most of the other states with primaries that day. Senator Cruz will come out of “Super Tuesday” with still more wins under his belt, and a fair amount of delegates to go along with them. At this point Rubio will begin to decline even more. The other primaries between the 1st and 15th should see Ted Cruz overtaking Rubio in most all of those states, and he will likely win one or two of them.

On the 15th, unless Rubio can somehow pull off a miracle, he will not win in Florida. At that point he is finished. There is no way forward for him from there. If, at the same time, Kasich is able to win in Ohio, which is still a possibility, he has a path, though not much of one. The key result would be that Trump does not get those delegates. At this point the race is down to Trump vs Cruz with a long way left to go. This is, I believe, the likely scenario.

Even if Kasich does not win Ohio, while it helps Trump, it still does not put him in the driver’s seat. A one on one Trump vs Cruz contest was always the best case scenario for defeating Donald Trump in the primary, and Hillary Clinton in the general. If Trump wins the nomination, Clinton likely wins the general. At that point, our constitutional republic is over.

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